The late 2020 Covid-19 spike is Darwinian Selection
The early 2020 Covid-19 was properly a pandemic as transmission vectors and therefore hygienic procedures were unknown and the pandemic followed the usual course. Dense population areas were most affected, along with high personal contact occupations. This indicated a person to person vector most likely aerosol and mucus droplet as Covid-19 was an upper respiratory infection. Asian science quickly found that face masks covering nose and mouths were very effective in reducing Ro and that social distancing improved results. Asian countries where mask wearing has high compliance had the pandemic under control by April 2020.
The rest of the world chose various degrees of lockdowns to control the pandemic which in the short term were somewhat effective in controlling the pandemic. But by and large health officials ignored the Asian example and recommended masks and face shields only for medical personnel dealing with Covid patients and not for the general public. By late spring 2020 lockdowns had controlled the virus to the point that other control mechanisms could be considered.
The only way to insure relative safety is to avoid all contact with unmasked individuals, especially indoors. In some parts of the country mask and face shields became common which along with social distancing have mitigated the effects of the fall spike. No mask, no service is rigidly enforced. Further selection will happen among travelers on airlines and at hotels who will be refused service if they refuse to mask properly in public areas. Eventually, those who respect the science will choose one of the 95% effective vaccines, and will still avoid the mask refusers for additional prophylaxis.
Unfortunately there is a large segment of the US population that get their “facts” about Covid-19 from the popular media and social media silos that reinforce the denial and mask ridicule. By late spring in the USA for a large part of the population denial and mask ridicule made and easing of lockdowns for economic reasons gave the virus a large population base in which to propagate. As a result super-spreader events are all to common among this population who then spread the virus to at-risk populations and others in their home populations who in turn become vectors for the disease. The deniers and mask ridiculers are effective vectors for the virus. Which is made worse by this population ignoring and campaigning against lockdowns which is the only way of slowing the spread of the disease other masks and social distancing.
There is nothing the country can do to change this behavior as this population does not listen to the “Fake News” that is trying to spread the effective control procedures and the disease will just continue to spread exponentially among this population and overwhelmed hospitals will have to send Covid-19 patients home to recover or not as they are able. This is already happening, as many private physicians are refusing to treat people who refuse to wear a mask properly for any condition.
The country is now divided into areas where mask usage is socially mandated, largely on the West coast and the Northeast, and the rest of the country where Covid-19 will exponentially increase. Those that have learned that near universal mask usage bends the exponential curve downward will survive. Those who don’t will see the exponential curve rise until few survive just as Darwin predicted.
